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MANUFACTURINGPMI

EZ manufacturing sector expands in July, but France continues deteriorating

In Europe

BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | Despite of the growing concerns following the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine towards the end of the month, the EZ manufacturing PMI index remains expanding in July (51.8), according to Markit data published today. Netherlands (53.5), Germany (52.4) and Austria (50.9) saw an acceleration of the growth, while Greece (48.7) continues depressed and France (47.8) keeps being the “Europe’s sick man” and the main brake to the European growth. With the worst figure in Europe, the French manufacturing sector even contracted in July at the fastest rate since December. Meanwhile Ireland (55.4), followed by Spain (53.9), registered again the sharpest rate of growth, supporting the eurozone manufacturing recovery.

Companies

United Kingdom, Santander’s main source of profits

MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | United Kingdom has displaced Brazil, which displaced before Spain as first market by benefit contribution to Banco Santander. Of the 2,750 million € earned in the first six months (+22% over the first half of 2013), 20% comes from the British market. Brazil contributes the 19% of benefits and Spain recovers share until reaching the 13%. And then there are United States (9%), Mexico (8%), Chile (7%), Poland (6%), Germany (5%), Portugal (2%) and other countries from Europe and Latin America (11%).       

                       

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Markets

The decline of nearly 40% of BES shares hampers the European financial sector

MADRID | The Corner | The Western stock indexes closed yesterday with prominent drops, reaction for which there was not a single trigger, but the sum of the various concerns that have been accumulating in recent days. The negative tone was maintained throughout the day, closing both European and U.S. stock markets near daily lows. It is important to emphasize the volatility increases, measured by the VIX index, which has reached its highest level of the last three months.

bescorner
Markets

Do Aussie central bankers have a “good enough” solution?

Benjamin Cole via Historinhas The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shoots for an “inflation band” of between 2 percent and 3 percent, and the Aussie economy (as recently illustrated here by Marcus Nunes) has been among the best-performing following the 2008 Great Recession. Could it be that simple? Should central banks merely shoot for a somewhat flexible and slightly higher inflation target? Worth noting is the People’s Bank of China has overseen much prosperity with a 4 percent inflation target.

australia
World economy

China: optimism on the rise again

MADRID | The Corner | Once again markets have embraced optimism about China, leaving fears of a hard landing and a credit crisis that dominated in 1Q behind. As Barclays analysts pointed out on Thursday, the onshore equity market has risen 6% in the past two weeks, with the low-valuation bank and property sectors advancing more than 10%. 

china
World economy

Argentina: Griesa’s ruling sets dangerous precedent in debt restructuring processes

MADRID | The Corner | Many got it all wrong: the problem with Argentina is not the so-called “second default in 12 years,” but U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling. The country will need to pay holdouts $1.33 billion plus interest. And that sets an extremely dangerous precedent for future restructuring processes of sovereign debt. No bond-holder will accept a haircut knowing that, at the end of the day, he could ask for the full amount. (Fig left: Argentina’s national reserves; right: sovereign CDS).

 

argentina
Markets

Morning coffee: Argentina, BES and other summer intrigues

MADRID | The Corner | Juicy day for European markets, peripheral and emerging countries, after Portuguese BES announced €3.6 billion losses in 1S14, which reduce its CT1 to 5%, below the 7% asked in Portugal. Besides, we’ll be very attentive to how Argentina’s so-called “second default in 12 years” (we are working on an analysis explaining why the real problem lies on the US judge’s sentence) unfolds –late on Thursday S&P rated the country as selective default after it didn’t come to an agreement with a group of its bond-holders. Stay tuned!

BES