From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.
Shaun Riordan | The fate of Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy was in the end settled by the five votes of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Until yesterday´s debate in the Congress, Rajoy was confident that the Basques, who last week voted in favour of the 2018 budget, would abstain. This would have denied socialist leader of the absolute majority he needed to eject Rajoy from the Moncloa Palace. But this time the Basque Nationalist Party had other priorities.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | The liberal Citizens party has risen to the top of the polls in Spain, receiving 26-27 percent support in two recent surveys against 23-25 percent for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s conservative People’s Party.
After confusing messages from Catalan government about yesterday unilateral but at the same time suspended independence declaration, the Spanish PM Rajoy has decided to trigger Article 155 which will be used to suspend the regional administration and take direct control of Catalonia.
The main problem from today onwards is not that Catalonia obtains independence, because there is zero possibility of that happening. It’s rather the weakening of Spain and Europe. Prime Minister Rajoy has the law on his side, but he is politically weak. He needs to look for back up outside, from Europe. But effective support, not notional.
Whatever you think of Mariano Rajoy, you can’t deny his ability to dig in. When in opposition, as leader of the conservative Popular Party (PP), he survived two general election losses, as well as thwarting mutinies within his own ranks; as prime minister since 2011 he has ridden through economic near-meltdown, the threat of new parties Podemos and Ciudadanos and a torrent of corruption scandals.
The most important thing is not the fact that Rajoy has been saved, although it is, because he is giving investors and businessmen reasons to still have confidence in Spain. But it is the fact that he has saved the country from the worst case scenario: a return to times of misrule, which in this case would have been even more bloody for the country.
Up to what point is the lack of a government affecting Spain and its government? Spain’s Stock Market Regulator (the CNMV) now has no visible head. And the number of public sector jobs cannot be increased, nor AENA’s air fares. But perhaps this is due to other reasons which could have equally existed in a normal political situation.
As we have already said there are moments when the economic and political cycles don’t go hand in hand. Yesterday, the investiture of caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy got underway, with very slight possibilities of his being able to win enough votes to return to office with a majority. But the Ibex 35 blue chip index didn’t even move: in fact it posted a nearly 1% gain.
Yesterday Spaniards voted again six months after the last general elections on proposals which had changed very little; the only relevant novelty was the integration of Izquierda Unida (IU) and Podemos which in the end turned out to be irrelevant. The new/old left has not gained anything obtaining the same number of seats and votes as in December, when IU ran on its own.