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China 3

In the World 31st August 2023

China’s economy faces “3D” challenge: demographics, debt and deflation

Morgan Stanley| China’s economy faces a “3D” challenge: demographics, debt and deflation. Our China macro expert, Robin Xing, thinks the central government will have to partially underwrite local government debt and deploy sufficient fiscal stimulus to facilitate LGFV deleveraging and help the economy grow without debt. With this resolution, China could enter a debt-deflation spiral that puts both growth and the inflation outlook at risk. The focus of market attention…

china yuanesCM

In the World, Relevant News Item 10th August 2023

China’s CPI and producer prices both show deflation

Bankinter: CPI (July):-0.3% year-on-year vs. -0.4% expected vs +0.0% previous. (ii) Industrial Prices: -4.4% year-on-year vs. -4.0% expected vs -5.4% previous. Assessment: Both CPI and industrial prices mark deflation. The CPI fell -0.3% year-on-year, the first negative reading since February 2021, while industrial prices fell for the tenth consecutive month. This is the first time since November 2020 that both indicators have been negative. After a positive post-pandemic start in…

china inflacion

In the World, World economy 10th June 2023

Inflation stays at surprisingly low levels in China, close to zero, deflation likely

Bankinter : CPI +0.2% in May (year-on-year) vs. +0.2% estimated and +0.1% previous; Producer Price Index -4.6% in May (year-on-year) vs -4.3% estimated and -3.6% previous. Assessment: Inflation remains at surprisingly low levels in China, close to zero, and with some probability of entering deflation in view of producer prices. Sufficient arguments for the PBOC to lower interest rates (currently at 4.30% 5A and 3.65% 1A), which would also encourage…

MorenoBonilla

Spanish economy 20th September 2022

Andalusia Joins Madrid In The Deflation Of Personal Income Tax And The Abolition Of Wealth Tax

The president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Moreno, yesterday joined the trail blazed by the president of Madrid by announcing he will grant a 100% rebate on wealth tax. He will also deflate personal income tax, with effect from the 2022 tax return, which is the one that will have to be accounted for to the Treasury next year. According to calculations made by the Andalusian government, this tax…

Snapshot of European financial sector' structure

European economy 16th January 2021

Has Deflation Returned To Europe?

Azad Zangana (Schroders) | November 2020 was the fourth consecutive month that headline inflation for the eurozone – using the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) – was negative. The response to the coronavirus pandemic has caused the most severe economic shock across the continent since the Second World War. Temporary factors are to blame for current negative inflation rates, but low inflation is expected to keep interest rates very low for years to come.

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European economy 26th October 2020

Deflation, The Greatest Threat For The Eurozone In The Short Term

Philippe Waetcher (Natixis AM) | The low inflation observed in the euro zone will translate into very weak wage dynamics. Demand will be weak while health constraints will weigh on activity. A situation that will not make it possible to fix on medium-term prospects compatible with the recovery plans. Inflation is the answer. The government on this point has more power than the central banks.

Spain ratings

Spanish economy 29th May 2020

The Spanish Economy Has Entered Deflation After The Health Crisis

Link Securities | According to preliminary data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to -1% year-on-year in May (-0.7% in April). The drop reflected the decline in fuel and oil prices, while food prices continued to rise. May inflation has not seen a decline to -1% since 2016. We do not rule out that the entire Eurozone could end up heading into deflation over the coming months, at least those economies most penalized by the pandemic.

Debt defaltion copia

Markets 5th February 2016

The Loop Of Debt Deflation

Monetary policy is not equipped to control the real economy and the financial economy at the same time. Its aim is to moderate the fluctuations in real variables, GDP, employment and prices. But this destabilises the financial market, fuels speculation and increases household and corporate debt with the banks.