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All posts by Ana Fuentes

deflation

Deflation can be “good” or “bad”, it depends

World economy

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | I do not want to question the likely bad effects that come about owing to a large unexpected deflation (or inflation).  What I want to question is whether a period of prolonged moderate (and presumably expected) deflation is necessarily associated with periods of depressed economic activity. Most people certainly seem to think so. But why?

In Europe

Housing prices rising in Spain only the peak of a huge non-sold stock iceberg

MADRID | Ana Fuentes | The first rise in Spain’s property prices since 2008 made big headlines on Monday. The government was proud to feed the press with some positive figures in order to illustrate its new recovery rethoric: 2Q housing prices increased by 0.8% on the year, compared with a 1.6% drop in annual terms in 1Q. But prices are going up… only for the few real estate actually being sold. What about the 600,000 properties in stock that banks are desperate to get rid of?

dragonball_338211
In Europe

ECB: We need a QE shot (not 17 of them, JPMorgan)

MADRID | The Corner | It’s speculation day before the European Central Bank’s tomorrow meeting. Will a QE plan finally be announced? Experts at Santander bank think that, if announced too early, it could damage TLTROs. JP Morgan economists believe there is a 30% chance we’ll get a QE shot in 2014, 50% next year. And they’ve come with a proposal we find erratic: 17 different bond buying plans, one for each state member. That is exactly the opposite direction the EU needs to be heading to.

montoro
In Europe

Spain may press criminal charges against Pujol tax fraud

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | According to the US-based organisation One, corruption takes around $1tn a year out of poor countries and kills millions. Yet this evil is not strange to developed nations. In Spain, 127 politicians are facing corruption charges although they have not lost their jobs. The last big scandal affects former Catalan leader Jordi Pujol, who in July admitted hiding an inheritance abroad for more than 30 years. A storm embarrassing the current ruling regional government who has called a referendum in November on whether the region should break from the rest of Spain. Madrid may seek criminal charges, Spanish Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro (see picture above) said on Tuesday. For some analysts, this could be a strategy to dent nationalism support.

australia
Markets

Do Aussie central bankers have a “good enough” solution?

Benjamin Cole via Historinhas The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shoots for an “inflation band” of between 2 percent and 3 percent, and the Aussie economy (as recently illustrated here by Marcus Nunes) has been among the best-performing following the 2008 Great Recession. Could it be that simple? Should central banks merely shoot for a somewhat flexible and slightly higher inflation target? Worth noting is the People’s Bank of China has overseen much prosperity with a 4 percent inflation target.

china
World economy

China: optimism on the rise again

MADRID | The Corner | Once again markets have embraced optimism about China, leaving fears of a hard landing and a credit crisis that dominated in 1Q behind. As Barclays analysts pointed out on Thursday, the onshore equity market has risen 6% in the past two weeks, with the low-valuation bank and property sectors advancing more than 10%. 

argentina
World economy

Argentina: Griesa’s ruling sets dangerous precedent in debt restructuring processes

MADRID | The Corner | Many got it all wrong: the problem with Argentina is not the so-called “second default in 12 years,” but U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling. The country will need to pay holdouts $1.33 billion plus interest. And that sets an extremely dangerous precedent for future restructuring processes of sovereign debt. No bond-holder will accept a haircut knowing that, at the end of the day, he could ask for the full amount. (Fig left: Argentina’s national reserves; right: sovereign CDS).