European Peace Dividend Ends Here

Obama called on Europe to increase its defence expenditure against ISIS in his last visit to the region in April. Analysts at Julius Bär Research share this opinion, stating that “European countries will most likely devise a number of security measures and reverse the trend of declining defence and security spending.” This is their note about terrorism effects on European defence economy.

Read More


Italian Banks Will Not Go Back to Fundamentals Completely

UBS | After a few weeks spent focusing on systemic concerns, earnings should offer a chance to go back to fundamentals. We are cautious into results as the recent rally left both banks trading on richer multiples and thus with limited protection against a quarter where underwhelming earnings could lead to consensus downgrades.


“Panama Canal Project Is Likely World Leader In Technology, Innovation”

After straightening out the disputes with the Panamanian authorities over the costs related to the Canal works, Sacyr will finally inaugurate it in June. Board member Juan Maria Aguirre points out that the company has succeeded in overcoming the property crash and has drastically reduced its debt levels. Now it has to contend with the unexpected consequences of having an 8.5% stake in Repsol after the oil price bubble burst.


Japan Could Be First On The Market With Helicopter Money

Julius Baer Research | After last Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, the US Fed and the BoJ are due to report this week. Will these three heavy-weight central banks do whatever it takes to reflate the global economy? We believe definitely, yes, if reflation does not unfold as desired.

Read More


Spanish Tragic Sense Of Life Clouds Optimism

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s spring forecasts – progressively less optimistic – have nurtured the tragic sense of life (the theory expounded by Spain’s Miguel de Unamuno) or the Spanish art of flagellation. Or at least that is what the media headlines reflected, despite the fact that international observers were incapable of detecting any particularly destructive tone in the Washington-based organisation’s predictions.

Read More