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emerging markets

Emerging countries: The export performance outlook is positive for the fragile five

World economy

LONDON | By Tal Shapsa at Barclays | Our export performance analysis points to a positive outlook for the fragile five of the emerging countries. A simple model we developed – which attempts to gauge future changes in the current accounts based on the export performance indices – suggests that the recent improvement will likely be sustained, providing additional tailwind for EM trades and carry in particular.

Financial markets

Draghi prepares ground for awaited QE

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | How much is enough? Mario Draghi announced that the ECB’s Governing Council is unanimously committed to “using both unconventional and conventional instruments to deal effectively with the risks of a too-prolonged period of low inflation.” His most explicit comments came as EZ inflation slowed to 0.5 percent last month, the weakest pace in more than four years, whereas the central bank’s target inflation is at 2%. Excess liquidity in the 18-nation currency bloc financial system has dropped to 92.9 billion euros ($128 billion), the lowest level since December 2011. When will Mr Draghi feel real risks?

liquidity
Financial markets

Market chatter: Spain’s Caixabank misses expectations but sees NPL ratio go down

MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Caixabank’s net profit dropped by 54.6% to €152M in the first quarter. Analysts highlight the positive impact of integrating Banco de Valencia and Banca Cívica. Spain’s third biggest bank by market value improved its margins and reduced its NPL rate for the first time since the crisis started. 

 

Financial markets

Stress tests: EU banks start tarting up

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | As the ECB’s crucial examination comes closer, all European entities, from the core to the periphery, have started studying different formulas to show the best capital ratios possible. German banks would imminently issue CoCos, while Italy’s could be about to create a joint bad bank and Spain is to monetize around €40 bn of deferred tax assets. The stress tests’ results will be released at the end of October 2014.

Rear view of a teenage boy combing his hair in front of a mirror, 1960
Financial markets

Waiting for QE (hope it’s not like Godot)

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | ECB policy makers are increasingly open about an eventual QE. Executive Board Member Benoît Coeuré was recently interviewed by French newspaper Le Monde. He weighed in austerity measures taken, and how could the ECB influence the level of the euro. As the central bank seems to be actually leaning towards unconventional measures, bonds and equity markets have already anticipated any announcements by Mario Draghi. But some fear what would happen if it was only lip service. What happened with the “whatever it takes” to preserve the eurozone’s integrity? 

ecb
News in Europe

Greek 2013 primary surplus confirmed at 1.5 bln euros

ATHENS | By Macropolis | Greece’s 2013 general government (gg) deficit reached 23.11 billion euros (12.7 percent of GDP), while debt stood at 318.7 billion (175.1 percent of GDP), according to first notification released by the Eurostat on Wednesday.

Greece
Financial markets

If only Citi was right and QE came…

MADRID | By The Corner | When Autumn comes, so will QE. At least that’s what economists at Citigroup are predicting. “We believe that the chances of unsterilized large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) of public and private assets being launched this year have (…) increased to more than 50:50,” they said in a note on Tuesday. How much of a stimulus shot are we talking about? To have any effect it should be of at least 1,000 billion euros ($1,381 billion), they note, which would lift the inflation rate toward the ECB’s “below, but close to 2% target”.  It could always be a decaffeinated step as some market makers are warning, but the truth is many on both sides of the Atlantic are hoping for Mr Draghi to make a move.

World economy

The Fed has (unofficially) adopted a triple mandate

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | According to San Francisco Fed president John Williams (and he´s far from being a lone voice) it seems “financial stability” is right up there together with inflation and unemployment.

San Francisco FED
Financial markets

Bankinter results cause mixed feelings; Moody’s points to a sexier Spain

MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Bankinter, the Spanish bank with highest credit rating announced results under expectations, according to Santander. Analysts look optimistic on Spanish equities profitability and expect a 15% growth in Ibex 35. Spain walks on a firm and positive trend, points out Moody’s.

 

News in Europe

The juicy business of speculating with Spanish sovereign debt

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Speculators who dared to buy Spanish debt in 2012 when it yielded 7.5% and priced a record low of 88.6% made a good deal with gains of 38%, now that Spain’s 10-years bonds’ interests near 3% and price stands at 122.6%. Moody’s thinks the country’s sovereign debt is going upwards, alongside Ireland, thanks to its economic, institutional and fiscal strengh. However, Italy’s rating is suffering from the opposite trend.

debt