Brazil & Petrobras: A Lot Of Oil, But Can Get It Out

EXANE BNP Paribas | A weakening demand environment, US shale’s c ontinued resilience and conventional supply benefiting from cost reductions have changed the picture for Petrobras and Brazil. Nevertheless, the pre-salt ranks among the lowest cost assets in the world.

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Telefonica’s Q1’16 Results Show Spain Turnaround

Citi Research | Telefonica reported a 1.7% (ex -pre -reported entities) beat on underlying OIBDA driven by the Spanish business and other. Guidance for 2016 is unchanged and the focus of the call is likely to be company’s deleveraging strategy.


European Union: A Heart With Tachycardia

The Belgian authorities understand that the risk of Brussels losing its capital status in Europe is very real in the wake of the terrorist attacks and the security deficiencies these revealed. Such a mess is incompatible with being the headquarters for the European Union and NATO.


Spanish Tragic Sense Of Life Clouds Optimism

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s spring forecasts – progressively less optimistic – have nurtured the tragic sense of life (the theory expounded by Spain’s Miguel de Unamuno) or the Spanish art of flagellation. Or at least that is what the media headlines reflected, despite the fact that international observers were incapable of detecting any particularly destructive tone in the Washington-based organisation’s predictions.

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Are Frenelux Banks Turning Japanese?

Exane BNP Paribas | Net Interest Income (NII) could be more under pressure than some think. In this note we take a forensic approach to modelling the impact of the current low interest rates breaking down assets vs liabilities, component by component. These are bad…at these rates French and Benelux banks could see 23% hit to estimated 2018 profit before tax  against forecast.

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