Intermoney | The unanimous approval by the Senate of a law to reduce or eliminate the tariffs applied to around 1,660 products made outside the US, of which half are made in China, could be the perfect excuse for Trump to return to the charge on trade attacks on Chinese interests. However, as we have insisted over the last few weeks, the key to the summer from a Chinese perspective, could lie more in the yuan than trade issues.
The new oil futures contract should therefore be seen “as a puzzle piece within the targeted internationalisation of the yuan”, comment from Julius Baer. The Chinese government is still a long way from the big goal of establishing the yuan as a leading reserve currency.
Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | The New Year has seen a flurry of positive news about yuan internationalization. On January 15th the Bank of France announced that it had added the yuan to its reserve portfolio. The National Bank of Belgium reported the next day that it had acquired 200 million euros worth of yuan-denominated assets.
Benoit Coeure, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board, believes the renminbi will eventually become a major international currency. He also warns about the bitcoin bubble, reminding that the bitcoin is not a currency but a speculative investment.
Could the yuan substitute the dollar and become the predominant currency? I would ask the following question: if you had some dollars, would you change them for yuan? No you wouldn’t, would you? We would like to demonstrate that the yuan is in no way a substitute for the dollar.
We can expect a rise in interest rates in 2017, driven up by the Fed, but fuelled by doubts over Europe. And I would bet the dollar will appreciate against the euro and the yuan – and sterling – although I am not normally a betting man.
Zhong Zhengsheng | The yuan has depreciated further against the U.S. dollar recently, with the central parity rate on July 6 hitting the lowest level since November 2010, at 6.68 yuan for every dollar.
Andrew Sheng via Caixin | Most studies on yuan internationalization focus on how it affects trade and investment flows and GDP growth. They typically neglect the balance sheet aspects, as well as the profits, or return on equity, issue.
In the Asia Times there is an article about the tricks China has begun to use to conceal the truth about its foreign currency position. Up until December, China released the two figures corresponding to foreign currency reserves, that of the Central Bank and that of the banking sector (which let’s not forget is state-owned).
It’s not the slowdown or the devaluation of the yuan which is really worrying, but China’s reforms. Economic reform, which should lead to a free market. And political reform which, unfortunately for the Chinese people, will be some time coming.