Search Results for deflation

Snapshot of European financial sector' structure

Has Deflation Returned To Europe?

Azad Zangana (Schroders) | November 2020 was the fourth consecutive month that headline inflation for the eurozone – using the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) – was negative. The response to the coronavirus pandemic has caused the most severe economic shock across the continent since the Second World War. Temporary factors are to blame for current negative inflation rates, but low inflation is expected to keep interest rates very low for years to come.


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Deflation, The Greatest Threat For The Eurozone In The Short Term

Philippe Waetcher (Natixis AM) | The low inflation observed in the euro zone will translate into very weak wage dynamics. Demand will be weak while health constraints will weigh on activity. A situation that will not make it possible to fix on medium-term prospects compatible with the recovery plans. Inflation is the answer. The government on this point has more power than the central banks.


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The Spanish Economy Has Entered Deflation After The Health Crisis

Link Securities | According to preliminary data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to -1% year-on-year in May (-0.7% in April). The drop reflected the decline in fuel and oil prices, while food prices continued to rise. May inflation has not seen a decline to -1% since 2016. We do not rule out that the entire Eurozone could end up heading into deflation over the coming months, at least those economies most penalized by the pandemic.



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The Loop Of Debt Deflation

Monetary policy is not equipped to control the real economy and the financial economy at the same time. Its aim is to moderate the fluctuations in real variables, GDP, employment and prices. But this destabilises the financial market, fuels speculation and increases household and corporate debt with the banks.



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“Deflation Remains More of a Threat to Growth Than Low Interest Rates”

Are we putting the responsilibity of exiting the crisis on central banks’ shoulders? Is ECB’s president Mario Draghi doing traders a favour by playing down the ECB’s responsibility for contributing to volatility? Professor of Financial Mathematics at Bocconi’s University Marcello Minenna answers to these questions from Milan and argues that a low interest rate environment is here to stay.



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Deflation: Economists sink into dementia

Guest post by Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | What to make of the recent dust-up around Rogoff World, in which the U.S. would pursue a cashless, deflationary federal police state characterized by negative interest rates? Harvard don Ken Rogoff has suggested this is the best macroeconomic option going forward. My take-away? The economics profession is deep into dementia.


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What if we were to see deflation?

ZURICH | UBS analysts | Our central case is that we will not have deflation in any country except for Spain in 2015. But we cannot rule out the possibility of deflation, so here we look at assets that may outperform during periods of deflation. Generally deflation is bad for equity which de-rates aggressively but the story is more nuanced because particular sectors and styles are affected quite differently.